Westminster Elections are underway in NI

by Yahoo Fri Apr 08, 2005 21:02

In relation to West Tyrone, there has been much media hype of Kieran Deeney the Independent topping the poll in the West Tyrone Assemble election and suggesting that he could be in the running to win the General election seat.

However, if you look at the results you see that while he topped the poll, he secured just under 15% of the poll. SF, who ran four candidates and won two seats, took almost 40% of the vote. Indeed, the SDLP polled just 15% also leaving a combined Deeney/SDLP vote still 10% behind SF in this constituency.

by JP Sat Apr 09, 2005 09:46

Local gov elections are on the same day so all seats are up for grabs. A real show down. SF- V- SDLP and UUP -V DUP

Left/alternative candidates

SP have so far announced candidates in East Belfast, South Belfast, Mid Ulster and Fermanagh.

SWP are also standing candidates havnt announced them yet.

by NI voter Sat Apr 09, 2005 12:34

The local government elections will give a better insight into the SDLP/SF and DUP/UUP battles. As Westminster elections use plurality voters will back parties and candidates that are not their first preference in local elections in order to beat another candidate. The local elections are done by PRSTV so political pundits will take great interest in that.

Yahoo said that the Deeney vote was beloew SF when his vote is combined with SDLP. True. But remember that Unionists will vote for Deeney as an anti-SF candidate. The West Tyrone election may become a referendum on Sinn Fein's very ineffective abstentionist MP Pat Doherty. I've been looking at the various left candidates. The SP are in with a good chance by all accounts of winning a seat in Fermanagh. I've not heard of the SWP candidates yet. I'm living in an area where there is not going to be any left candidates.

by Yahoo Sat Apr 09, 2005 14:08

NI VOTER said: "Yahoo said that the Deeney vote was beloew SF when his vote is combined with SDLP. True. But remember that Unionists will vote for Deeney as an anti-SF candidate. The West Tyrone election may become a referendum on Sinn Fein's very ineffective abstentionist MP Pat Doherty."

Not only was the Deeney and SDLP vote combined below SF, it was still a whopping 10% behind SF.

As for the comments about Doherty being ineffective, that is nonsense. SF MP's are elected in the full knowledge that they are abstentionist and Pat Doherty is the best MP this area has ever had. I'm from Castlederg and and i'l tell you his vote wil substantially increase this time around. He is hard working on the ground and is extremely popular.

While some unionists will vote tactically for Deeney, does anyone really expect them to come out en bloc for Deeney. It will not happen. Indeed, not every SDLP voter will vote or Deeney either to defeat SF. And all this talk of uniting to defeat SF will only ensure that SF voters come out in bigger numbers than ever before.

by moneybags Sat Apr 09, 2005 15:28

Just a point on southern attitudes to the euro: People down here really don't care so long as they've got plenty of them . There was never any great attatchment to the old punt in the first place and now they are gone they are largely forgotten about .
Why leftists in Britain or northern ireland make such a big deal about the issue is beyond me . Is it something about the queens head on the pound note that they like so much?

by tom again Sat Apr 09, 2005 17:02

sorry if this is a bit of crossthreading ,but : does anyone know whether either the DUP or UUP has issued any statement on the death of the pope ?

by NI voter Sun Apr 10, 2005 13:10

"Why leftists in Britain or northern ireland make such a big deal about the issue is beyond me . Is it something about the queens head on the pound note that they like so much?"

The reason is that the ability of a government to adjust interest rates or make public spending committments is gone with the Euro. This means that a government would not be allowed to intervene into the economy if there was an economic crisis. It's a disaster waiting to happen. You would be a muppet if you thought that Leftwing people have any attachment to the Queen's head or the Harp on back of coins. Sinn Fein have questions to answer on this. It will expose them greatly in the South if they openly support a pro-Euro referendum in the UK. I think it's a case of where SF are not really an All-Ireland party. In South they're left, in North their a wannabe establishment party.

On Doherty. I think that he will hae difficulties this time around. He may well increase his vote. But this will because last time it was a 3-way race. Now it may well be a 2-way race.
Doherty has a dodgy position on the Hospital and it may well be exposed more and more by Deeney during the campaign. SF's abstentionism does not go down well among many people. Just ask students who had their nominally anti-fees MPs not ven turning up to defeat the Commons vote. If there is a hung parliament you may well see SF face a bit of anger if they dont actively do their jobs in Westminster.

by tom again Sun Apr 10, 2005 14:24

I don't think Sinn Fein will be exposed in the south if they support the euro in a referendum up north . As I said before, it will be a complete non issue in the south . The government down here do still make public spending commitments - they still don't keep them any more than they do anywhere else in Europe . Is it any different in Britain though or in Northern Ireland? In the event of an economic crisis what would Gordon Brown be able to do any more than Norman Lamont was able to do on Black Friday - nationalize the banks?
All this bourgois economics stuff about adjusting interest rates goes a little over my head .But I do seem to remember Gordon Brown , when New Labour was first elected to office, handing over power in such matters to the governor of the Bank of England . He did this precisely to reassure the City of London that there would be no political interference on the free workings of finance capitalism under his watch . Tony Blair said last week that Gordon was the finest chancellor of the last hundred years and the City of London agrees. So do the movers and shakers in the conservative party secretly.
Leftists should think twice before tell working class voters that they have more control or imput into economic policies under the stewardship of the Governor of the Bank of England than they would have under the president of the Bundesbank . People should be warned that they are going to get fleeced either way.

by alan grynszpan Sun Apr 10, 2005 14:42

Therefore they would be well advised to put any spare cash they have into bricks and mortar in some dodgy Eastern European state on the brink of EU membership and thus on the cusp of a magnificent property boom that will make the Celtic Tiger pale by comparison ....

That way Gordon Brown won't be able to get his greasy hands on it .....

by left economist Sun Apr 10, 2005 20:35

It is very straight forward why lefts should oppose the euro.

it has nothing to do with choosing who's face is on your coins or which section of the ruling class sets interest rates etc.

The key question is the STABILITY PACT. The stability pact ties governments into not going into a defeciet of over 3% of GDP.

This is neo liberalism. It means if and when there is a decline in the economy the effects must be passed directly to the working class. It also means that it is harder for the working class to win concessions from the ruling class. This is why we should oppose the Euro, who gives a fuck about whether the Queen of England or a harp is on our coins!

The leadership of SF are not complete fools. They know about the stability pact. they know that it is a receipe for neo liberal policies, but they still support it because they are not a party of the working class but a party that acts in the interests of capitalism.

by Tallyman Sun Apr 10, 2005 20:45

One thing is for certain SF will lose their seat in the Pottinger ward in Belfast. The only nationalist estate in the ward is the short strand and SF depend on a decent turnout from the estate to get a seat.

The Short strand is full of anti IRA and anti SF grafitti following they're murdering of a local man. It is most likely that a significant number of exSF voters will not vote on May 5th which will see SF lose their seat.

by Yahoo Sun Apr 10, 2005 22:03

NI VOTER said: "On Doherty. I think that he will hae difficulties this time around. He may well increase his vote. But this will because last time it was a 3-way race. Now it may well be a 2-way race.
Doherty has a dodgy position on the Hospital and it may well be exposed more and more by Deeney during the campaign. SF's abstentionism does not go down well among many people. Just ask students who had their nominally anti-fees MPs not ven turning up to defeat the Commons vote. If there is a hung parliament you may well see SF face a bit of anger if they dont actively do their jobs in Westminster."

Doherty will not have difficulties this time around. As I pointed out before the combined Deeney /SDLP vote was 10% behind SF. The SDLP are standing a candidate this time, the SDLP have confirmed, and even if they hadn't does anyone seriously think there would be a 100% shift in vote from SDLP to Deeny - it wouldn't happen and its irrelevant now.

In terms of abstentionism, SF voters do not wan their MP's taking seats in Westminster. There would be mutiny if they did. People have always known that voting for SF was a vote for abstentionism. That will not undermine the vote one bit. Indeed Dohertys vote wil increase significantly this time. He is recognised within the constituency for the hard work tha he does at ground level throughout the entire constituency.

Also, this sort of nonsense also will boost Dohertys vote, cos republicans will come out inlarger numbers than ever if they think there is any possibility of this seat being in danger.

This is just wishful thinking on some peoples parts rather than serious analysis. Anyone that knows the constituency knows the real story on the ground. We have had this nonsense before. Remember Brid Rodgers?

by Corrections Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:53

SF's support for the introduction of the Euro is longstanding, well-known and was both pointed to in the European Elections and an issue of debate during the campaign.

I find it very telling that people here are giving their 'informed' opinions on the issue without even being aware of this, it calls into question what, if anything, they actually know about the party's position on the issue.

http://www.sinnfein.ie/pdf/EU04ElectionManifesto.pdf See points on the Eurozone on page 26.

Some of you will probably disagree with this as well but at least, and clearly this will be novel for you, at least you'll know what you're disagreeing about.

Oh, and the notion that Deeny will take Pat's seat is ludicrous. If this is the best you can come up with you're only embarassing yourselves.

by Toryb'y Mon Apr 11, 2005 16:21

Both SF and SDLP are progresseive, therefore both are theoretical in their approach. The real question is whether people elect unionists to work with or Unionists to block in the future.

The Westminster elections will undoubtedly return an 11-7 Unionist Majority; the issue is whether the majority of that vote is implacably opposed to working with Sinn Féin or not. I suspect that the DUP will do rather well (but not in my home constituency of North Down, where I predict another good result for Lady Sylvia Hermon) and that the consolidation of Sinn Féin which seems likely will actually weaken the nationalist vote, simply by narrowing the margin of 'respectable' argument.

Not popular, I know, but I can predict with some certainty that the analysis is pretty spot-on.

TB

by Barry Mon Apr 11, 2005 16:36

It never ceases to amaze me why people still think that whoever wins these elections will make the slightest bit of difference.

A handful of seats in a marginalised backwater colony, pop one and 2/3 of a million at the most, in an electoral pool of over 65 million in the UK.

What real difference does it make whichever mouthpiece or attention seeker gets elected. It changes nothing.

by NI voter Mon Apr 11, 2005 16:51

I do not claim to have a monopoly on the truth. I'd say that Doherty is in poll position as he won the seat by 10% margin and there has been a sectarianisation in the past 4 years that will benefit DUP and SF. What I was saying was that there is a chance that if SDLP and Unionists did not run or if voters saw it as a two horse race in West Tyrone that Doherty would loose his seat. I think that only Deeney is capable of removing SF due to his cross-community appeal.

Points were made about the Euro. I think that SF will be hoping and praying that Blair does not have a Euro referendum as it will have an effect on their 'anti-establishment' image in the South. We must remember that SF, SDLP, DUP and UUP are in NO WAY progressive. They are very backward and appeal to communal differences among working class people. It's right to say that it doesn't matter who gets in as they're all pro-capitalist disgusting sectarian bigots. DUP and UUP openly brag about backing the war on Iraq! SF and SDLP openly support the Euro project and its "stability pact".

by Tallyman Mon Apr 11, 2005 20:17

Fermanagh South Tyrone: SF (Hold)
West Tyrone: SF (Hold)
Mid Ulster: SF (Hold)
Foyle: SF (Gain from SDLP)
East Londonderry: DUP (Hold)
North Antrim: DUP (Hold)
East Antrim: DUP (Gain from UUP)
South Antrim: DUP (Gain from UUP)
Lagan Valley: DUP (Hold)
Upper Bann: DUP (Gain from UUP)
Strangford: DUP (Hold)
North Down: DUP (Hold)
Newry and Armagh: SF (Gain from SDLP)
South Down: SDLP (Hold)
West Belfast: SF (Hold)
East Belfast: DUP (Hold)
North Belfast: DUP (Hold)
South Belfast: DUP (Gain from UUP)

That would mean:
DUP 11 (+4)
SF 6 (+2)
SDLP 1 (-2)
UUP 0 (-4)

by Yahoo Tue Apr 12, 2005 17:36

I would agree wholeheartedly with you. I think you called it right. Though I think there will be a few very tight ones. Specifically

South Belfast
South Down
Fermanagh/S Tyrone
Foyle

If there is to be any upset on this, I think there is a possibility of Catrioan Ruane sneaking South Down. I think it will be unionist tactical voting that may save McGrady.

by Pol Tue Apr 12, 2005 18:49

Paisley issued a statement saying that his congregation ought to respect catholic mouning at the Pope's death.

by Rooster Tue Apr 12, 2005 23:12

the fact that he showed respect for those of the catholic persuasion.

by Barry Tue Apr 12, 2005 23:30

just disappointed he didnt die first.

by Rooster Thu Apr 14, 2005 05:19

their will always be someone to take his place, besides it just goes to show that he really is'nt the big boogey man that people make out.